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当地时间9月13日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，今年8月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨8.3%，随后在通胀忧虑蔓延的情况下，当日美股市场出现暴跌，三大股指创下两年多来最大单日跌幅。多位分析人士在接受总台央视记者采访时指出，CPI同比增速居高不下，已连续6个月高于8%，特别是核心CPI涨幅加速，表明美国通胀压力短期内难以缓解，而美联储为控制物价被迫持续激进加息，将对美国股市乃至整体经济造成进一步冲击。△美国劳工部数据显示，尽管8月CPI同比增速（蓝线）连续两个月出现下滑，但仍连续6个月高于8%，表明通胀水平居高不下。住房和食品价格持续上行美国劳工部当日公布数据显示，今年8月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，高于市场预期的下降0.1%，同比上涨8.3%，高于市场预期的上涨8.1%。当月，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨6.3%，均高于市场预期。

B |     The August 15, 2021 fall of Kabul shocked the world, signaling the collapse of the West’s 20-year-long, multi-trillion-dollar nation-building experiment in Afghanistan in a single day.,Less than two weeks before the cataclysm, US and Afghan officials issued statement after statement expressing confidence in the Afghan military’s ability to fight on without American support on the ground.,“[The Afghan Army has] got greater numbers, they’ve got an air force, and, oh by the way, their air force is also flying…This is not an incompetent air force – they know how to fight from the air and they are. They have modern weaponry. They have military organizational ability as well as 20 years of training in the field by – not just the United States but our NATO and Allied partners. So they have a lot of advantages. It’s really just now about using those advantages,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters in Washington on August 11, less than 100 hours before Kabul’s collapse.,In the chaotic few days that followed, Afghan Air Force personnel wound up flying nearly 50 helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft out of the country to neighboring Uzbekistan.,What happened? How did the US and NATO’s orderly withdrawal – which began in May 2021 amid fears that the Taliban would attack Western forces if they didn’t stick to the terms of the 2020 Trump-Taliban Doha peace deal, turn into such a humiliating and disorganized rout?,Paper Tiger vs Shoeless Army,On paper, the Afghan government and army seemed prepared for a years-long slog, similar to the one put up by the Soviet-backed Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, which managed to hold out against the Mujahedeen independently between 1989 and early 1992, even as the jihadists received billions in arms and cash from the CIA, Saudi and Egyptian intelligence, Pakistan and China. By comparison, the NATO-backed Afghan Army had serious problems with foreign support for the Taliban, with the insurgent group’s only major foreign backer consisting of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence.,The Afghan military boasted a total size of some 300,000 personnel – the 16th largest army in the world, along with an impressive array of $85 billion in US-gifted weaponry, including tens of millions of guns, grenades and rocket launchers, 8,500 Humvees, hundreds of armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, mine-resistant ambush protected vehicles, and thousands of heavy and light trucks.,The Air Force’s inventory included more than two hundred Russian and US-made attack and utility helicopters, dozens of transport planes, and close to 30 Cessna 208 and A-29 Super Tucano ground attack and COIN jets.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,Facing off against them were the Taliban: a rag-tag group of militants whose core fighting force was estimated to consist of about 60,000 fighters, some of them shoeless, no air force, and limited mobility due to their adversary’s total air superiority and control of fuel.,Behind the scenes, a sprinkling of media reports and testimonies from Afghan soldiers and officials told a sobering story previewing the coming disaster, discussing the widespread disillusionment, demoralization and corruption centered around military and police structures based more on patronage, personal power and enrichment than competence and aptitude.,“There is no motivation for the army to fight for the corrupt government and corrupt politicians here,” Ahmad Wali Massoud, Afghanistan’s former envoy to the UK, told the Wall Street Journal on August 10, a few days before Kabul’s collapse.,“They are not fighting for [then-Afghan President Ashraf] Ghani. They haven’t even been fed properly. Why should they fight? For what? They are better off with the Taliban, which is why they are switching sides like that,” Massoud explained.,US Military Vehicles Falling Into Taliban Hands at Alarming Rate, Report Finds3 July 2021, 15:14 GMT,Ghani himself would end up fleeing the country as Kabul fell, with his entourage reportedly carrying so much money in suitcases from the state coffers that he had to leave some of it behind. Ghani has categorically dismissed these reports and denied allegations besmirching his good name.,John Sopko, the US inspector general for Afghanistan, warned Congress in March 2021 about the state of the Afghan’s military’s demoralization, admitting that “endemic corruption” was a threat, and that it was “fueling” the insurgency and giving the Taliban the means to gain public support.,Another problem, according to a May 2021 report by the Associated Press, was lack of professionalism. Attiqullah Amarkhiel, a former Afghan Army major general, told the news agency that while the Moscow-allied Afghan Army of 1989 consisted of about 150,000 high school educated troops. By contrast, he said, the NATO-trained crack troops of the Western-backed Afghan government had just six-to-eight weeks of basic training, with most recruits uneducated and/or allied to warlords.,“Then we had quality. Today we have quantity,” Amarkhiel said.,Blitzkrieg,This demoralization and corruption, combined with what The Intelligencer characterized as an institutionally built-in deep overdependence on US coalition support, culminated in the events of early-mid-August 2021.,By mid-July of that year, the Taliban was able to take advantage of coalition forces’ withdrawal by establishing control over large swathes of the Afghan countryside. However, no major cities and none of the country’s 34 provincial capitals were under the group’s control at the time. Throughout its two-decade insurgency campaign, the Taliban only launched one major strategic offensive against a government-controlled city – striking Kandahar in May 2011 before retreating back into the countryside.,Fast forward a decade, and the militant group would finally cast off their inhibitions about offensives cities.,On August 6, the militants captured Zaranj, capital of the southern province of Nimruz near the border with Iran, in a lightning attack, with government forces putting up light resistance and local bureaucrats fleeing the city.,A day later, the militants captured Sheberghan, capital of Jawzjan province, after heavy fighting. On August 8, Sar-e-Pul, Kunduz and Taluqan, three provincial capitals in the north of the country, fell, followed by Aybak in the northern Samangan province on August 9.,August 10 witnessed the collapse of Farah in the west and Pul-e-Khumri in Afghanistan’s center. A day later, Faizabad, capital of the northeastern province of Badakhshan also fell.,Animation showing Taliban's inexorable march towards Kabul. “The problem with the army was not lack of training or weapons. The most important thing in war is politics”Read @AmyKazmin @KatrinaManson and @b_parkyn's story on why the Afghan army foldedhttps://t.co/bjjJdPp15J pic.twitter.com/Ll6JrHQWLH— Steven Bernard (@sdbernard) August 15, 2021,August 12-13 would become the darkest days for the Afghan army and government up to that point, with the cities of Ghazni, Herat, Kandahar, Lashkar Gah, Qala-e-Naw, Feruz Koh, Pul-e-Alam, Terenkot and Qalat falling to the Taliban in the space of 48 hours. On August 14, the strategic northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif fell.,Finally, on August 15, 2021, Kabul and the eastern city of Jalalabad collapsed – falling, awkwardly, while tens of thousands of coalition troops, contractors, diplomats, Afghan puppet administration assistance and Western intelligence agents were still in the country.,© AP Photo / Rahmat GulA U.S. Chinook helicopter flies over the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 15, 2021. Taliban fighters entered the outskirts of the Afghan capital on Sunday, further tightening their grip on the country as panicked workers fled government offices and helicopters landed at the U.S. Embassy.A U.S. Chinook helicopter flies over the city of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 15, 2021. Taliban fighters entered the outskirts of the Afghan capital on Sunday, further tightening their grip on the country as panicked workers fled government offices and helicopters landed at the U.S. Embassy.© AP Photo / Rahmat Gul,In a post-op analysis of the events, General Yasin Zia, the former chief of staff of the Afghan army, estimated that some 4,000 security forces troops were killed, and 1,000 more gone missing, in the deadly weeks between July 1 and August 15, 2021 – with that figure representing about one half of the average of 8,000 Afghan security personnel killed each year over the previous five years.,Zia estimated that in total, some 92,000 members of the Afghan security forces died in the line of duty since 2001. Up to 100,000 Afghan civilians, tens of thousands of Taliban fighters, over 3,500 US and coalition troops, and 4,000+ Western mercenaries also perished.,* An organization under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.。尽管CPI同比增速连续两个月出现下滑，但仍维持在历史高位，并连续6个月高于8%，表明通胀水平居高不下，其中住房、食品和医疗保健价格上涨是主要推手。具体来看，占CPI权重三分之一的住房成本环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨6.2%；食品价格环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨11.4%；医疗保健成本环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨5.6%。分析认为，美国住房和食品价格持续上行，将对消费者心理产生影响，不仅表明通胀具有顽固性，也令美联储缺乏放缓加息的空间，未来将被迫持续激进加息应对通胀。密苏里大学助理教授费利佩·席尔瓦（Felipe Silva）在接受总台央视记者采访时表示：“关于今天刚刚公布的通胀数据，它们比预期的要高一些，市场原本预期比实际数据低0.2个百分点。然而，我想说的是，未来两个月的情况基本就像一个依赖函数，取决于通货膨胀和经济衰退的担忧如何实际演变，你会看到美联储实际上变得更加激进或不那么激进。”费利佩·席尔瓦指出：“截至目前，市场基本已经更新了关于下次加息的预期，我认为这已经明确了，市场预期下次将会加息75个基点，这是到目前为止最有可能出现的情况。”△彭博社报道称，通胀超预期或将令美联储更激进地收紧货币政策。专家详解股市为何暴跌目前市场普遍预期，美联储将不惜以经济增长放缓为代价，通过激进加息抑制需求，从而达到控制物价的目的。美联储主席鲍威尔此前在全球央行年会上表示，美联储加息至限制性水平后可能会保持一段时间，强调历史经验表明不应过早放松货币政策。他同时承认，降低通胀可能需要持续一段时间内低于趋势的经济增长，劳动力市场状况很可能会出现一些疲软，这会给美国家庭和企业带来痛苦。鲍威尔等官员的强硬表态，被一些市场人士解读为“只要不看到通胀数据明显好转，美联储就会坚持激进加息的货币政策”，而13日的CPI数据发布后，忧虑情绪迅速弥漫，美国股市当日出现暴跌。截至当日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1276.37点，跌幅达3.94%，至31104.97点；标准普尔500指数下跌177.72点，跌幅达4.32%，至3932.69点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌632.84点，跌幅达5.16%，至11633.57点。三大股指均创下2020年6月11日以来最大单日跌幅。本次下跌令道琼斯指数在2022年累计下跌14%，标普500指数下跌17%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌26%。海投全球创始人兼CEO王金龙在接受总台央视记者采访时分析称：“今天美国股市全部暴跌，基本上是由CPI数据超出市场预期导致的。

C | 市场最近一周以来对CPI和美联储加息幅度的预期相对比较乐观，股市也一路反弹，而今天直接跌破到月初的水平。8月的CPI数据同比上涨8.3%并不是很离谱，相对7月的8.5%还有小幅下降，但是核心CPI与去年同期对比大幅上涨，而且相对7月的涨幅还在加速。市场对美国能够在今年内有效控制住CPI失去了信心。核心CPI的加速上涨，体现出通胀更加具有‘粘性’。虽然汽油和出行等价格已经下降，但房屋和食品价格还在上升，同时随着工资水平的提升，服务的价格也在持续上涨。”王金龙指出：“市场本周初基本上预计美联储在9月加息75个基点，甚至小概率会只加息50个基点。但在8月CPI数据发布之后，整体转向，市场已经预期有1/3的可能会加息100个基点。利率快速上涨会加剧企业和个人的资金成本，进一步压缩利润空间，导致美国经济基本失去了‘软着陆’的希望，所以市场反应剧烈，‘去风险化’的集体意识再次抬头。

D | 市场整体抛售资产，持有现金，不仅是股市，包括美国国债、黄金和石油等资产全线下跌，而美元指数在高位上继续攀升。”费利佩·席尔瓦也进一步指出：“如果利率上升，你的资金成本就会随着时间的推移上升，你的消费决定也会受到影响，因此消费者信心就会下滑，这是你能想到的最直接的影响。

E | 加息也会对股票价格产生影响，当你加息时，股票价格会有负面反应。

F | 当然，企业也会更新它们的投资和消费决定，由于企业预计消费者信心放缓，所以它们会迟疑，自然的后果是，它们将减少投资，它们将减少岗位，而这对经济有类似的整体影响。简而言之，这就是货币政策的传导方式。”与此同时，《华尔街日报》分析称，尽管美国目前的就业数据尚可，但如果有人认为美联储遏制通胀的举措不会导致利率上升到足以妨碍就业的程度，那将是错误的。

G | 而包括美国前财长萨默斯在内的一些经济学家甚至预计，降低通胀的代价，将是美国失业率超过6%。（央视记者 顾乡 刘旭）